Tension is reportedly rising within the top ranks of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Presidency over the possibility of a political alignment involving former Kano State Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, ex–Vice President Atiku Abubakar, and Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, ahead of the 2027 elections.
Sources say the concern stems from renewed discussions among opposition leaders aimed at building a broad coalition capable of challenging President Bola Tinubu’s second-term ambitions.
Atiku and Obi, both major contenders in the 2023 election under the PDP and Labour Party respectively, have since merged their political structures into the African Democratic Congress (ADC) to strengthen a new opposition alliance.
Reports indicate that key political figures within and beyond the ADC are persuading Kwankwaso to join forces with the Atiku–Obi bloc to form a unified front for 2027.
Former President Olusegun Obasanjo is believed to be actively encouraging the alliance. He has reportedly held consultations with Atiku and Obi on the possibility of running a joint presidential ticket under the ADC banner.
Obasanjo, who maintains long-standing relationships with both men, is said to view them as political protégés.
Kwankwaso, who ran under the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in 2023, won Kano State convincingly but finished fourth nationwide. Analysts believe the division of opposition votes among Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso significantly contributed to Tinubu’s narrow victory.
INEC’s final results show Tinubu with 8,794,726 votes; Atiku with 6,984,520; Obi with 6,101,533; and Kwankwaso with 1,496,687.
Combined, Atiku, Obi, and Kwankwaso amassed 14,582,740 votes — around 5.7 million more than Tinubu — a statistic reportedly causing discomfort within APC circles.
An APC insider in Abuja stated, “The 2023 numbers are not looking favourable for the APC.”
Beyond the overall figures, the geographical distribution of opposition victories is also unsettling for strategists in the ruling party.
Tinubu secured 12 states, Atiku also took 12, Obi won 11 plus the FCT, and Kwankwaso swept Kano.
Tinubu’s wins included Ekiti, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, Ondo, Jigawa, Benue, Niger, Kogi, Zamfara, Rivers, and Borno.
Atiku triumphed in Osun, Yobe, Katsina, Adamawa, Taraba, Kaduna, Bayelsa, Sokoto, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Kebbi, and Gombe.
Obi dominated in Enugu, Lagos, Nasarawa, Delta, Imo, Cross River, Ebonyi, Anambra, Abia, Edo, Plateau, and the FCT, while Kwankwaso controlled Kano.
Collectively, the opposition alliance covered 24 states and the FCT compared to Tinubu’s 12.
Political observers argue that combining Atiku’s northern structure, Obi’s youth-driven urban support, and Kwankwaso’s Kano grassroots strength could create a formidable challenge for the APC in 2027.
They note that Atiku still commands extensive influence across northern and southern regions, Obi maintains strong momentum among the youth and urban electorate, and Kwankwaso’s Kwankwasiyya Movement continues to hold deep sway in Kano.
An APC leader who coordinated one of Tinubu’s 2023 campaign groups said the party remains alert to opposition movements.
“The real concern isn’t Atiku, Obi, or Kwankwaso individually, but the possibility of their supporters merging into one platform. If they pull it off, the political calculus changes dramatically,” he told The Whistler, adding that internal rivalries might still disrupt the alliance.
Another senior APC official, however, rejected claims of alarm, insisting the party is focused on governance.
“No one is panicking over alliances. What counts is performance and what we deliver to Nigerians,” he said.
Despite the concerns, multiple APC insiders revealed that the party has not completely ruled out negotiating with Kwankwaso, although his conditions for joining are said to be “tough.”
Reports suggest his demands could involve dismantling existing APC structures in Kano — a move some party leaders consider unrealistic and potentially destabilising.
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