Why APC’s 2027 Victory Is Not Certain Despite Having 30 Governors

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The National Secretary of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Rauf Aregbesola, has downplayed the recent wave of defections by governors to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), insisting that such developments do not automatically guarantee electoral success in the 2027 general elections.

Aregbesola argued that the mere presence of a large number of governors within a political party does not assure victory at the polls.

He made this assertion while speaking at the launch of a book authored by the ADC’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi. According to him, lessons from past elections clearly show that political dominance by governors does not necessarily translate into electoral triumph.

Recalling outcomes from the last general elections, Aregbesola said experiences from the South East and South West regions debunk the notion that governors alone can determine election results.

He stated, “There is a growing narrative that is quite troubling for those of us who genuinely believe in democracy. Some people claim that because about 30 governors are aligned with a particular party, that party is automatically assured of victory.

“However, recent electoral statistics in Nigeria do not support this claim. The results of the last general elections clearly contradict this assumption.

“I will cite examples from two geopolitical zones — the South West and the South East — to dismantle the argument that governors are the sole determinants of electoral success.”

Aregbesola further pointed out that despite the overwhelming presence of APC governors in the South West during the 2023 elections, the party secured only about 55 per cent of the total votes in the region.