The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has projected a significant slowdown in Nigeria’s inflation rate, estimating it will fall to 12.94 per cent in 2026, following expected declines in food costs and petrol prices.
The projection was contained in the apex bank’s 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook for Nigeria, released on Wednesday.
According to the report, Africa’s largest economy is also expected to grow by 4.49 per cent in 2026, reflecting the positive impact of ongoing economic reforms and improving macroeconomic conditions.
The CBN explained that the anticipated economic growth would be supported by sustained structural reforms, enhanced productivity across critical sectors, and a gradual relaxation of tight monetary policies.
The bank noted that greater policy consistency and improved performance in agriculture, energy, and manufacturing are expected to strengthen overall economic output and reduce inflationary pressures.
“Headline inflation is projected to moderate to an estimated average of 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven primarily by declining food prices and lower costs of premium motor spirit,” the CBN stated.
The inflation outlook aligns with recent developments in the downstream oil sector, where petrol prices have declined nationwide following intense competition among fuel marketers.
Gossip News Now reports that fuel prices dropped sharply after Dangote Refinery reduced its petrol gantry price in a move that intensified a price war within the sector.
As a result, petrol prices are currently selling for between ₦739 and ₦910 per litre, depending on location.
Further supporting the inflation forecast, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed in its November 2025 inflation report that Nigeria’s food inflation rate declined to 11.08 per cent.
The CBN expressed confidence that the combined effect of lower food and fuel prices would help stabilise consumer prices, boost purchasing power, and improve living standards as the country heads into 2026.
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