Nigeria’s crude oil production, including condensate, recorded a significant year-on-year decline of 8.3 percent, falling to 1.544 million barrels per day in December 2025, according to figures released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
This marks a notable reduction from the 1.684 million barrels per day produced during the same period in 2024, further underscoring the ongoing difficulties confronting the nation’s oil and gas industry.
Although the NUPRC did not specifically outline the causes of the decline in its report issued on Monday, January 19, 2026, industry analysts have attributed the drop to factors such as reduced investment, aging production facilities, insecurity in oil-producing regions, and declining investor confidence.
On a month-on-month basis, the regulator disclosed that Nigeria’s combined crude oil and condensate production slipped slightly to 1.544 million bpd in December 2025, compared to 1.599 million bpd recorded in November 2025.
The report also revealed that Nigeria once again failed to meet its 1.5 million barrels per day production quota allocated by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
According to the NUPRC, condensate accounted for 122,385 barrels per day of the total output in December. Since OPEC excludes condensate from its production quota calculations, Nigeria’s officially recognised crude oil output stood at approximately 1.422 million barrels per day, below the agreed limit.
FG Falls Short of 2025 Budget Oil Target
The data further showed that the Federal Government did not achieve its oil production benchmark for the 2025 fiscal year, which was set at 2.06 million barrels per day.
Gossip News Now reports that the 2025 budget projections were based on crude oil production of 2.06 million bpd, an oil price benchmark of $75 per barrel, and an exchange rate of about ₦1,500 to the dollar.
Providing additional insight, the NUPRC stated: “The lowest and peak combined crude oil and condensate production stood at 1.52 million bopd and 1.82 million bopd, respectively. Average crude oil production represented 95 percent of the OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd.
“Daily average production was 1,544,345 barrels per day, consisting of crude oil production of 1,421,960 bopd and condensate output of 122,385 bopd.”
Similarly, OPEC, in its January 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report, confirmed a marginal month-on-month decline in Nigeria’s crude oil output, excluding condensate.
The oil cartel reported that Nigeria produced 1.422 million barrels per day in December 2025, down from 1.436 million barrels per day in November 2025, representing a 0.9 percent decrease.
OPEC noted that the figures were obtained through direct communication, once again indicating that Nigeria did not meet its 1.5 million bpd production quota.
On a year-on-year basis, OPEC also stated that Nigeria’s crude oil output declined to 1.422 million bpd in December 2025 from 1.485 million bpd recorded in the corresponding period, highlighting a sustained downward trend.
Insecurity, Policy Gaps Blamed for Drop
Commenting on the development, Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics and Executive Director of the Emmanuel Egbogah Foundation, Wumi Iledare, attributed the decline to deep-rooted structural and governance challenges.
In an interview with Vanguard, Iledare said, “The causes are well known: insecurity, a mature basin with limited new discoveries, and the failure to open up new hydrocarbon blocks for bidding. Governance gaps remain significant, and policy uncertainty continues to erode investor confidence.”
He also criticised what he described as selective enforcement of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), stressing the urgent need for decisive leadership in the sector.
“The selective implementation of the PIA must end. Nigeria urgently requires a clearly designated leader with the institutional authority to drive the sector forward. Relying on multiple proxy drivers will not deliver results. I honestly cannot recall the last time Nigeria met its OPEC quota,” he added.
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