Could petrol sell for as much as ₦5,000 per litre in Nigeria in the coming years?

That is the scenario raised by Adewole Adebayo, the Social Democratic Party (SDP) presidential candidate, who warned that a further rise in petrol prices could result from the direction of the country’s downstream petroleum policies and movements in the naira exchange rate.

Adebayo said the projection was linked to the Federal Government’s deregulation of the downstream petroleum sector, the floating of the naira and Nigeria’s continued reliance on imported petrol.

Key Facts

• Adewole Adebayo is the SDP presidential candidate who raised the warning.
• He said petrol could eventually reach ₦5,000 per litre under the current policy direction.
• His argument links petrol prices to the exchange rate and the dollar-denominated cost of imported fuel.
• Adebayo said an exchange rate of ₦3,500 to $1 could push petrol’s landing cost above ₦4,000 per litre.
• He criticised the removal of fuel subsidies and its effect on consumers.
• He also identified interest rates, port-related challenges and distribution costs as factors that could add to petrol-importation expenses.

The Policy and Economic Background

Adebayo’s warning centres on changes in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector and the country’s currency regime.

He argued that because Nigeria continues to depend on imported petrol, movements in the foreign exchange market can affect the domestic cost of the product. Since imported petrol is priced in US dollars, a weaker naira would require more naira to cover the same dollar-denominated cost.

The SDP candidate therefore linked the future price of petrol to both deregulation and exchange-rate movements.

By the Numbers

• ₦5,000: Petrol price Adebayo warned could become possible.
• ₦3,500/$: Exchange rate used in his projection.
• ₦4,000+: Landing cost per litre that Adebayo said could result under that exchange-rate scenario.

The figures are part of Adebayo’s argument about how currency depreciation could affect the cost of imported petrol.

What Adebayo Says Could Drive the Increase

Adebayo said the exchange rate would be a major factor in determining how much importers have to spend to bring petrol into Nigeria.

His argument is that if the naira weakens substantially against the dollar, the naira value of imported petrol would rise even where the dollar price of the product remained unchanged.

He said that if the exchange rate reaches ₦3,500 to a dollar, the landing cost of petrol alone could exceed ₦4,000 per litre.

“A ₦5,000 fuel price is not a myth; it is basic mathematics based on the direction the Tinubu administration is walking,” Adebayo said.

The statement was issued by his campaign’s Chief Communications Adviser, Mark Adebayo, on Wednesday.

Challenges That Could Add to Petrol Costs

Adebayo also criticised the removal of fuel subsidies, arguing that the policy leaves consumers more exposed to changes in global crude oil prices.

Beyond crude oil and foreign exchange, he identified several other costs that could affect the importation and distribution of petrol.

These include high interest rates, challenges at the ports and distribution expenses. In his view, such costs could add further pressure to the price consumers eventually pay at the pump.

The warning therefore goes beyond the exchange rate alone and points to several cost components within the petrol supply chain.

Why the Warning Is Politically Significant

The petrol-price argument also forms part of Adebayo’s criticism of the economic policies of President Bola Tinubu.

By linking the potential ₦5,000 petrol price to the administration’s policy direction, the SDP candidate is presenting fuel costs as an issue that could remain prominent in the political debate ahead of the next presidential election.

His position specifically challenges the consequences of deregulation, naira floating and subsidy removal.

The claim, however, is a projection made by Adebayo rather than an announcement that petrol will actually sell at ₦5,000 per litre.

Future Outlook

The future price of petrol will depend on the economic conditions surrounding its importation and distribution, including the exchange rate and other costs identified in Adebayo’s argument.

For now, ₦5,000 per litre remains Adebayo’s projected scenario, rather than a confirmed petrol-price figure.

His warning places the cost of fuel, currency movements and the consequences of downstream petroleum reforms at the centre of the economic debate surrounding Nigeria’s next political cycle.