Lai Mohammed, Nigeria’s former Minister of Information and Culture, has insisted that Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, had little chance of winning the election—even if he had amassed 10 million votes nationwide.
Speaking on the State Affairs podcast hosted by Edmund Obilo, Mohammed argued that Obi’s campaign fell short of a critical constitutional requirement: obtaining at least 25 percent of votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s states.
“Securing a high total vote count alone is not enough,” Mohammed explained. “Even with 10 million votes, Obi would have lost because he did not reach one-quarter of the votes in at least 25 states. Additionally, he failed to deploy agents to roughly 40,000 polling units.”
The former minister also highlighted the unique role of ethnic and religious considerations in the 2023 election, particularly in Lagos State. According to him, these factors influenced voter behavior in ways not previously seen in Nigerian politics.
“For the first time in Nigeria’s political history, ethnicity and religion were dominant factors in how people voted,” he noted.
Youth sentiment, especially the lingering anger from the #EndSARS protests, also shaped election outcomes, Mohammed said. He suggested that dissatisfaction among young voters hurt the ruling APC and its candidate, Bola Tinubu.
“Many young people wanted to express their frustration, which worked against the APC and Tinubu,” he added.
Mohammed went on to differentiate presidential elections from governorship or legislative contests. He pointed out that while voters may feel a personal connection to local candidates, presidential elections are generally more abstract, making them less influenced by personal ties.
“In presidential contests, people may not feel directly connected to the candidates, unlike in governorship or legislative elections where candidates live among the communities they aim to represent,” he explained.
On the topic of President Tinubu’s leadership, Mohammed praised his loyalty and steadfastness, emphasizing that he continues to support allies even after electoral setbacks.
“Asiwaju does not abandon people just because they lose an election. He continues to guide and back them,” Mohammed said.
Finally, he underscored Tinubu’s political acumen, noting that his calm and approachable demeanor often causes others to underestimate his strategic depth.
“He understands Nigerian politics at a level many do not fully appreciate,” Mohammed concluded.
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