President Bola Tinubu’s political strength ahead of the 2027 presidential election has been questioned by Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) National Chairman, Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, who claimed that the President would lose the election if the contest were free, fair and credible.
Baba-Ahmed based his assessment on what he described as the economic realities facing Nigerians, arguing that the conditions in which citizens live could influence their choice at the polls.
At a Glance
Naija News reports that Baba-Ahmed made the remarks while featuring on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme on Wednesday.
He argued that Tinubu was detached from the realities facing Nigerians and questioned whether the President had adequately considered the economic conditions across the country.
Baba-Ahmed also criticised Tinubu for publicly defending the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), arguing that such comments could create the impression that the President was seeking the electoral body’s goodwill.
What Happened?
While responding to questions about whether Tinubu could win the 2027 presidential election, Baba-Ahmed said the President would lose if INEC conducted a genuinely free, fair and credible poll.
He linked his assessment to the economic difficulties confronting Nigerians, including poverty and what he described as inadequate industrial and agricultural activity.
Baba-Ahmed said the realities of people’s lives should be considered when assessing the political mood of the country, rather than relying solely on official figures and statistics.
According to him, the conditions experienced by ordinary Nigerians would provide a clearer indication of how they could vote in 2027.
Key Players
Tinubu is expected to be a central figure in the 2027 presidential contest, while Baba-Ahmed is an opposition politician and the national chairman of the PRP.
INEC also features prominently in Baba-Ahmed’s argument because of his criticism of the President’s public comments about the electoral commission.
His position combines an assessment of Tinubu’s political standing with a concern about how the electoral process could be perceived if the President, as an incumbent seeking another term, publicly defends the body responsible for conducting the election.
What Baba-Ahmed Said
Baba-Ahmed offered his strongest assessment of Tinubu’s electoral prospects when he said:
“If it’s a credible, free, and fair election, Tinubu will lose maybe before 4 p.m.”
He argued that the prediction was based on the conditions in which Nigerians currently live.
The PRP chairman said:
“Tinubu is detached from the realities of Nigerians.”
He also questioned whether official figures adequately represented the experiences of citizens.
According to him, the situation should be assessed by looking at where Nigerians live and the circumstances they face rather than relying exclusively on statistics.
Background To His Argument
Baba-Ahmed’s comments come as political parties and their leaders begin positioning themselves ahead of the 2027 general election.
His argument focused heavily on the economic condition of Nigerians.
He said the poverty level and the state of the economy should be considered when evaluating the President’s chances at the next election.
Baba-Ahmed also drew attention to Northern Nigeria, saying there was insufficient industrial and agricultural activity in the region.
He argued that these realities could be more significant to voters than economic figures presented by political authorities.
Separating The Claim From The Facts
Baba-Ahmed’s statement that Tinubu would lose “before 4 p.m.” is a political prediction rather than an established electoral outcome.
The 2027 presidential election has not yet been conducted, so there is currently no result that can confirm his assessment.
Similarly, his description of Tinubu as being “detached from the realities of Nigerians” represents Baba-Ahmed’s political assessment of the President.
His argument about INEC is also his own interpretation of the implications of Tinubu’s public defence of the electoral commission.
These distinctions are important because Baba-Ahmed’s comments describe what he believes could happen under a free and fair election rather than reporting an actual election result.
Where The Matter Stands
Baba-Ahmed also criticised Tinubu for defending INEC in public.
He argued that a sitting president who is also a contestant in an election should not publicly praise or defend the electoral body responsible for conducting the poll.
According to him, such comments could create a perception that the President is seeking the goodwill of INEC.
He said:
“Nobody should praise INEC for conducting an election in which the president is a contestant.”
Baba-Ahmed described the situation as inappropriate and argued that it could raise questions about the perceived independence of the electoral process.
Editorial Analysis
Baba-Ahmed’s argument rests on the belief that Tinubu’s electoral strength should ultimately be tested through the choices of voters in a credible election.
His reference to poverty, economic conditions and the experiences of Nigerians provides the basis for his assessment that the President could struggle at the polls.
However, the strength of that argument cannot be established solely from the prediction itself.
Whether voters will ultimately share Baba-Ahmed’s assessment will depend on the political and economic circumstances at the time of the election, the competing candidates and parties, and the conduct of the electoral process.
His comments about INEC introduce a separate but related issue: the importance of public confidence in the neutrality of the institution conducting the election.
Strategic Political Assessment
Baba-Ahmed’s remarks also represent an opposition assessment of Tinubu’s political position ahead of 2027.
By focusing on the living conditions of Nigerians, he is effectively arguing that the administration’s record will be central to the President’s chances of securing another term.
His criticism of Tinubu’s comments about INEC adds an institutional dimension to that argument.
Rather than focusing only on whether Tinubu remains politically popular, Baba-Ahmed is also questioning the conditions under which the next election should be conducted.
The combined message is that, in his view, both voter sentiment and electoral credibility will be critical to determining the outcome.
Political Significance
Baba-Ahmed’s comments are significant because they reflect the kind of argument opposition figures are likely to make as the 2027 presidential contest draws closer.
His “before 4 p.m.” prediction presents a particularly strong assessment of Tinubu’s electoral prospects, but its broader significance lies in the reasoning behind it.
By pointing to poverty, economic conditions and citizens’ lived experiences, Baba-Ahmed is arguing that the President’s political strength should be measured against the realities confronting voters.
His criticism of INEC also places electoral credibility alongside political performance as an important issue for the next presidential contest.
The comments therefore highlight two major areas that could shape political debate ahead of 2027: whether voters remain satisfied with the incumbent administration and whether the electoral process commands sufficient confidence among competing political actors.
Final Editorial Wrap-Up
Baba-Ahmed has offered a strong assessment of Tinubu’s prospects ahead of the 2027 presidential election, arguing that the President would lose quickly if Nigerians were allowed to vote in a genuinely free and fair contest.
That prediction remains a political claim, as the election has not yet taken place. What can be established from his comments is the basis of his argument: he believes economic conditions and the everyday experiences of Nigerians could weigh heavily against the incumbent.
His criticism of Tinubu’s public defence of INEC adds another dimension to the debate, raising questions about how the electoral process should be perceived when an incumbent president is also a contestant.
Ultimately, Baba-Ahmed’s intervention places Tinubu’s political strength, voter sentiment and confidence in the electoral process at the centre of the opposition’s assessment of the 2027 presidential race.
