Can President Bola Tinubu overcome Rabiu Kwankwaso’s established political influence in Kano in the 2027 presidential election?

Abdulmumin Jibrin, the lawmaker representing Kiru/Bebeji Federal Constituency in the House of Representatives, believes he can.

Jibrin, a former political associate of Kwankwaso who is now a member of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), said familiarity with the former Kano governor’s political structure, strategies and support base would help the APC counter his influence in the state.

He made the assertion while appearing on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Thursday.

The Kano Political Battle

The 2027 presidential contest in Kano is expected to attract significant attention because of Kwankwaso’s long-standing political influence in the state.

Kwankwaso governed Kano for eight years and, according to the supplied report, is contesting the 2027 presidential election as the running mate to Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC).

Jibrin’s argument is that while Kwankwaso remains an important political force in Kano, the APC understands the political machinery behind his influence and can develop a strategy to counter it.

That calculation forms the basis of Jibrin’s confidence that Tinubu can defeat Kwankwaso in the state.

Key Players

Bola Tinubu

The incumbent President and the candidate Jibrin believes can defeat Kwankwaso in Kano during the 2027 presidential election.

Rabiu Kwankwaso

The former Kano State governor remains a major political figure in the state and has an established support base there.

Abdulmumin Jibrin

The APC lawmaker making the prediction. Jibrin previously had a political relationship with Kwankwaso and says his knowledge of the former governor’s political structure gives him insight into how the APC can respond.

The Kwankwasiyya Movement

The political movement associated with Kwankwaso is another major part of Jibrin’s assessment. He said those familiar with its strengths and weaknesses understand how to deal with its influence.

Why Jibrin Is Confident

Asked whether Tinubu could defeat Kwankwaso in Kano, Jibrin gave a confident response.

“He will because many of us know the dynamics, his strategies, how he operates, the Kwankwasiyya movement, their strengths, their weaknesses, we are all here and we know how we will be able to deal with that situation.”

Jibrin’s argument is based largely on familiarity.

He believes politicians who previously worked within Kwankwaso’s political environment understand how the movement operates and can use that knowledge to challenge its influence.

However, he did not suggest that Kwankwaso should be dismissed as politically insignificant.

In fact, Jibrin acknowledged that the former governor remains influential in Kano and has a substantial support base.

Kwankwaso Remains A Major Factor

While expressing confidence in Tinubu’s chances, Jibrin admitted that the contest would not be easy.

He said anyone claiming that Kwankwaso no longer has a significant support base in Kano would be wrong.

“We know him very, very well, we know his strategy, he is still influential, he has supporter base in Kano. Whoever tells you he doesn’t have supporter base is not telling you the truth. So, it’s going to be a tough battle.”

The admission is significant because it places Jibrin’s prediction in context.

His argument is not that Kwankwaso lacks political strength.

Rather, he believes the APC can overcome that strength because of its understanding of Kwankwaso’s political organisation and strategy.

Presidential Candidate Or Running Mate?

One of the central points in Jibrin’s argument is the distinction between Kwankwaso contesting the presidency himself and contesting as a running mate.

According to Jibrin, the electoral dynamics in Kano could have been different if Kwankwaso were the presidential candidate.

He argued that being on the ballot as a running mate creates a different political calculation.

“There is a difference between Kwankwaso being on the ballot as a presidential candidate and being on the ballot as a running mate. There is a sharp difference, there are completely two different things.”

Jibrin added:

“If Kwankwaso were on the ballot as a presidential candidate, the dynamics in Kano might be different, but he is not the presidential candidate.”

This distinction is at the centre of his assessment of the 2027 contest.

Rather than measuring Kwankwaso’s influence solely by his previous electoral strength in Kano, Jibrin believes his current position on the presidential ticket should also be taken into account.

From Political Allies To Rivals

Jibrin’s assessment of the 2027 contest is also shaped by his previous relationship with Kwankwaso.

The lawmaker acknowledged that Kwankwaso played a role in his political development and said he remained appreciative of that support.

Jibrin explained that when he entered politics and met Kwankwaso, he was already established to some extent, but the former governor nevertheless gave him a political push.

“Of course he gave me a push in politics and I appreciate everything.”

Despite their movement into different political camps, Jibrin said he would continue to respect his former political associate.

He also ruled out turning their political differences into personal attacks.

“I have said repeatedly, I will continue to respect him and I will never join issues with him. We all changed parties and loyalties, he himself has changed party.”

The position presents the coming contest as a political rivalry rather than a personal dispute.

Jibrin is effectively separating his assessment of Kwankwaso’s political strategy from his personal respect for the former governor.

Questions For Readers

Jibrin’s prediction raises several questions about the 2027 presidential contest in Kano:

• Can Tinubu realistically overcome Kwankwaso’s established political structure in Kano?
• How much does Kwankwaso’s role as a running mate change his influence in the state?
• Can familiarity with the Kwankwasiyya movement give the APC an advantage?
• Will Kwankwaso’s personal support base remain strong even without being the presidential candidate?
• Does Kano’s 2027 result have implications beyond the state?

The answers will ultimately depend on how the competing political structures perform during the election campaign and at the ballot box.

A Tough Battle Ahead

Jibrin’s confidence in Tinubu’s prospects comes with an acknowledgement that Kwankwaso remains a formidable political figure in Kano.

His argument rests on two factors: the APC’s familiarity with Kwankwaso’s political machinery and the difference he believes exists between contesting as a presidential candidate and running as a vice-presidential candidate.

At the same time, Jibrin’s own comments recognise that Kwankwaso retains a substantial support base and that defeating his influence will not be straightforward.

For now, therefore, the claim that Tinubu will defeat Kwankwaso remains Jibrin’s political prediction, rather than an established electoral outcome.

The 2027 contest will ultimately test whether the APC’s understanding of the Kwankwasiyya political structure is enough to overcome the influence that Kwankwaso has built in Kano.